Creating Futures Scenarios To Aid In Military Planning: The Use Of The Field Anomaly Relaxation Systems Approach

نویسندگان

  • Guy Duczynski
  • Mark Campbell Williams
چکیده

This paper explains the use of Field Anomaly Relaxation, a systems approach to futures planning, in a planning unit of a large international security organisation. Seven drivers, major influences which cannot be changed, act to provide the boundaries for five future world situations arrayed on a Faustian tree, a map of interconnected scenarios. These future worlds are further developed into rich narratives that describe 20 individual scenarios. The product of the futures work is linked back to the organisation to provoke creative thought and unconfined dialogue designed to contribute to initiatives for fruitful change.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Future Scenarios of Iran's Public Libraries Based on Futures Workshops for Selected Librarians, Managers and Members

Purpose: Nowadays, public libraries are going through a critical period and turning point, a time when from one hand and based on the environmental trends affecting them, can be a sign of their future elimination, or on the other hand if they enjoy an accurate picture of the future and adopt appropriate strategies, can provide them with a renewed vital opportunity. This issue is related to the ...

متن کامل

Identification of driving forces, uncertainties and future scenarios of Iran's environment

Background and Objective: Global macro trends on the one hand, and domestic trends and effective factors on the other, have put the future of the Iran's environment in a state of uncertainty with concern. In a complex and unpredictable environment, the use of scenario thinking (based on identifying and detecting future drivers and uncertainties) can provide tangible and comprehensible images of...

متن کامل

Appropriate types of futures studies scenarios in health

Background: Scenario is the primary method in futures studies, and thus its improper use can undermine the credibility and claims of the results. There are many scenario types, and here we aimed at understanding whether these scenarios are being used properly in the health field.    Methods: In this study, a combination method was used in 3 phases, and 8 + 2 steps were considered to ...

متن کامل

Futurology of Multi-Criteria Decision Making Techniques Using Philosophical Assumptions of Paradigms in Scenario Writing

There are many opportunities and threats in the decision-making environment for managers, and an organization must use research and information systems to change, monitor, and anticipate this environment. Futurism reflects how tomorrow reality gives birth to tomorrow's reality is. The purpose of this research; Analyzing the role of futures studies in the existing patterns of critical factors of...

متن کامل

Futures studies of hospital resilience supply chain with the intuitive logics scenario planning

Background: Scenario planning is one of the most crucial future study methods in uncertain and complex situations. Hospital supply chain resilience also requires an understanding of future events due to the complexity of relationships and exposure to unexpected circumstances. The purpose of this study is to formulate scenarios for the future development of hospital supply chain resilience. Mat...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2000